Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high after geopolitical developments lifted market sentiment, sparking renewed confidence among investors.
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to $109,400 on May 21, representing a 26% gain over the past month. The rally followed the May 12 announcement of a temporary 90-day trade pact between the United States and China, which reduced import tariffs to 10%, alleviating some of the macroeconomic uncertainty that had weighed on global markets.
The agreement, which cooled fears of an abrupt escalation in trade tensions, had a notable effect on both traditional and crypto markets. Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, noted that the “lower risk of sudden disruptions” encouraged a more aggressive stance from investors.
Earlier this year, on April 2, US President Donald Trump’s introduction of reciprocal import tariffs rattled global markets. Just five days later, Bitcoin plunged to a year-to-date low of $74,434, while the S&P 500 suffered a massive $5 trillion loss — its largest on record. Market sentiment began to shift on April 9, following Trump’s Liberation Day speech, which many interpreted as a turning point in the uncertainty.
By May, analysts described Bitcoin’s setup as “textbook perfect.” Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, said the digital asset entered the month backed by a rare convergence of positive geopolitical, regulatory, and macroeconomic signals.
“The de-escalation in the Russia–Ukraine conflict has defused a major source of global instability,” Kooner explained. “Rather than retreating from risk, we’re seeing investors move into Bitcoin and tech stocks. The demand for safe havens is being replaced by a renewed appetite for growth assets.”
Kooner emphasized that this trend signals a broader shift: “Bitcoin is evolving beyond its role as a crisis hedge. It’s increasingly being seen as a high-conviction asset during times of relative stability.”
This comes after a major announcement on May 19, when Trump shared on X that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to begin immediate ceasefire talks, highlighting progress toward ending the prolonged conflict.
Looking ahead, analysts suggest that if funding rates remain neutral and open interest holds steady, Bitcoin could break through the $114,000–$120,000 range — particularly if supported by new macroeconomic or regulatory developments.
Some forecasts are even more bullish. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, believes that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the expanding global money supply could push the price past $132,000 before the end of 2025. He argues that increasing fiat debasement continues to drive investor interest in digital assets like BTC.
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