Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s current trajectory hints at the potential for a massive rally. Analyst Gert van Lagen recently shared insights using a key metric known as the AVIV Ratio—a tool that measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s actively traded capitalization and its realized capitalization (excluding miner rewards).
Historically, when this ratio breaks above its +3 standard deviation level, it has marked the top of previous bull markets—around $1,200 in 2013, close to $20,000 in 2017, and nearly $69,000 in 2021. At present, the AVIV Ratio is still well below those historical highs, implying Bitcoin may still have significant room to run—possibly as high as $330,000 before this cycle peaks.
This metric provides a fresh perspective on investor behavior, capturing shifts between active trading and long-term holding. Spikes in the AVIV Ratio often signal rising momentum or increased profit-taking activity—patterns that historically precede strong price action. Still, the indicator hasn’t been thoroughly tested across all market conditions, and Bitcoin’s well-known volatility remains a key risk factor.
Supporting this bullish scenario, data from CryptoQuant reveals a sharp reduction in Bitcoin balances held by over-the-counter (OTC) desks—dropping from 166,500 to 137,400 BTC in 2025. This trend suggests institutional players may be pulling coins off exchanges in favor of long-term custody, lowering immediate sell pressure and hinting at growing confidence.
This accumulation phase is being driven by heavyweights like Strategy, which has continued purchasing BTC aggressively, and newer players such as Metaplanet, which now holds 10,000 BTC. On top of that, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed $128.18 billion in net value so far, and BlackRock alone manages over $70 billion in BTC assets—indicating strong institutional demand.
Power Law Model Supports $220K–$330K Range
Adding further weight to this outlook, a separate analysis from Bitcoin researcher Sminston With arrives at a similar conclusion. Using a long-term power law model alongside a 365-day simple moving average, With estimates a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000. The model boasts a strong statistical correlation (R² = 0.96), suggesting the target range aligns with past price behaviors.
For Bitcoin to reach those levels from its current price near $104,000, it would need to rally between 100% and 200%. That might sound extreme, but historical precedents show similar leaps in previous cycles where BTC far exceeded its long-term average trendline.
However, With also notes the analysis is built on just four major bull markets, urging caution when applying it to future price movements. The takeaway: while the upside potential is significant, so is the uncertainty.
Lastly, a review of 30 different cycle top indicators by CoinGlass shows no sign that Bitcoin’s bull run is over, even with BTC recently touching $112,000. Metrics such as the Pi Cycle Top and MVRV Ratio continue to signal that the current market still has room to grow—strengthening the case for a possible surge toward or even beyond the $230,000 mark.
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