A recent 90-day trade agreement between the United States and China may serve as a springboard for a broader upswing in both equity and crypto markets, as investors anticipate possible tax policy changes.
On May 12, the White House confirmed that both nations agreed to temporarily lower tariffs to 10% starting May 14—a reduction of 24% from the current rate.
At a press briefing in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that both countries aim to avoid further economic separation.
“Both sides made it clear that decoupling is not the goal,” Bessent stated. “The high tariffs acted like a trade blockade, and neither country wants that. What we want is more balanced trade and open dialogue.”
The positive atmosphere around the negotiations, along with the temporary halt in new tariffs, eases fears of a sudden return to hostilities. According to Aurelie Barthere, lead research analyst at crypto analytics firm Nansen, this shift could open the door for altcoins and traditional assets to follow Bitcoin’s recent uptrend.
“Bitcoin is already nearing record levels,” Barthere said. “But with the recent easing in trade tensions, we could now see altcoins, US stocks, and even the Dollar Index (DXY) catching up with strong gains.”
She pointed out that Bitcoin has outpaced other risk assets in the past few months, partly because it’s less exposed to trade-related uncertainties.
“I also expect the US dollar to strengthen against traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen, euro, and Swiss franc, as investor sentiment improves globally,” Barthere added.
Nansen previously projected a 70% likelihood that crypto and stock markets would find a bottom by June, contingent on the direction of trade talks.
Tax Policy Could Fuel Further Upside
Bitcoin is currently trading just 4.8% below its all-time high of over $109,800, set in January 2025.
“There’s real potential for risk assets to surpass their January highs if a meaningful tax cut package is introduced,” said Barthere. “It would need to go beyond just extending current tax breaks—it should include new income and corporate tax reductions.”
She mentioned that Secretary Bessent hinted such a package could be revealed by mid-July, calling it a “powerful additional driver” for markets.
Optimistic trade developments and bullish technical patterns are reinforcing analyst predictions of Bitcoin possibly climbing to $150,000, especially if the current weekly bull flag setup confirms a breakout.
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