The altcoin market — excluding Ethereum (ETH) — has gained a massive $126 billion in the second quarter of 2025, stirring hopes that a long-awaited altseason could finally be kicking off. Crypto analyst Javon Marks recently pointed to a breakout that could rival the historic rally of 2017.
In a recent post on X, Marks drew attention to a chart comparing the TOTAL3 index (which tracks the combined market cap of all altcoins except Bitcoin and Ethereum) to the U.S. money supply. He suggested that this correlation indicates growing strength in altcoins relative to available liquidity, signaling increased capital flow and rising investor interest.
According to Marks, the altcoin market has just bounced off a major support zone after a breakout — a move he believes could lead to one of the strongest bull runs since 2017.
“Altcoins have bounced off of the breakout retest against the US money supply and can deliver one of their most powerful runs since 2017!” he said.
Another trader, known as Moustache, shared a similar sentiment. He posted an analysis showing an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly TOTAL3 chart — a classic bullish reversal signal. By comparing market behavior in 2021 and now in 2025, he sees potential for a sharp rally similar to the 174% surge that altcoins saw versus Bitcoin’s modest 20% rise in the final stretch of the 2021 cycle.
Analysts Divided on the Altseason Outlook
While some market watchers are gearing up for a major altcoin run, others are more cautious. Technical analyst Crypto Scient noted that despite the recent gains, the broader altcoin trend hasn’t yet confirmed a macro-level bullish reversal. He highlighted that TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap excluding only Bitcoin) is still struggling under resistance around the $1.25 trillion mark.
“Since both BTC and TOTAL are near the resistance zone and TOTAL2 still has some room, I am inclined to believe that we are distributing,” he explained.
Meanwhile, another voice of caution came from analyst DonaXBT, who emphasized the importance of Bitcoin dominance. Currently sitting above 60%, Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market is still in a weekly uptrend. For a true altseason to take off, DonaXBT believes BTC dominance would need to break below 60% and ideally test the 56–58% support range.
Trading Activity Signals Early Stages
Altcoin trading volumes remain relatively quiet, according to data from CryptoQuant. Daily spot volumes for altcoins are hovering between $3 billion and $5 billion — significantly lower than the $8 billion to $12 billion range seen in late 2024. Still, many analysts interpret this as a sign the rally is just beginning, not ending.
Further reinforcing this early-stage view is the Altcoin Season Index, which currently stands at 24. According to Blockchaincenter.net, values below 25 indicate Bitcoin season. However, this often sets the stage for altcoins to shine — especially when the index climbs above 30 or 40, historically triggering major capital inflows into altcoins.
With technical patterns forming, investor confidence building, and market signals aligning, a growing number of crypto analysts believe altcoins may be on the cusp of a major breakout.
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