In a rare market development, Bitcoin outperformed expectations in April — not just with impressive gains, but also with a level of stability that undercut major traditional indexes.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital reported that Bitcoin’s realized volatility over the last 10 trading days dropped to 43.86, below the S&P 500’s 47.29 and the Nasdaq 100’s 51.26. This marks an unusual scenario for a digital asset historically recognized for its sharp price swings.
This shift comes at a time of increasing financial uncertainty. Since the U.S. announced new tariffs on April 2, markets have been rattled. The Nasdaq Composite remained stagnant, the Bloomberg Dollar Index slid nearly 4%, and gold briefly touched $3,500 per ounce before retreating to a more modest gain of 5.75%, according to Galaxy’s May 12 market update.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin jumped by 11%, further cementing its role as a potential macroeconomic hedge amid global instability.
Bitcoin’s Market Behavior Shifting
Although Bitcoin still shares moderately high 30-day correlations with the S&P 500 (0.62) and the Nasdaq (0.64), its beta has declined. This indicates a shift in how the asset is perceived — increasingly less as a speculative risk and more as a strategic, long-term investment.
“Bitcoin doesn’t rely on a government’s backing or tax infrastructure to maintain its integrity,” said Chris Rhine, who oversees liquid active strategies at Galaxy.
Galaxy analysts also drew parallels to 2018–2019, when Bitcoin experienced a similar rally amid the U.S.-China trade war, signaling that it may benefit during periods of heightened geopolitical stress.
Hank Huang, CEO of Kronos Research, noted that growing institutional involvement — including inflows into Bitcoin-focused ETFs — is gradually transforming Bitcoin into a digital equivalent of gold.
“As institutions inject more liquidity, volatility drops. This makes Bitcoin an increasingly attractive foundation for modern portfolios,” Huang explained.
Growing Institutional Confidence
Galaxy’s over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk characterized current market behavior as “cautiously optimistic,” supported by restrained use of leverage and minimal stress in hedging activity.
With 95% of Bitcoin’s total supply already in circulation, and demand rising from institutions, ETFs, and even governments, the narrative around Bitcoin as a digital store of value is gaining traction.
“Supply and demand fundamentals are reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a maturing store of value in the digital space,” said Ian Kolman, co-portfolio manager at Galaxy.
On April 25, Jay Jacobs, head of thematics and active ETFs at BlackRock, commented on a broader trend where countries are diversifying away from U.S. dollar reserves — increasingly favoring gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.
As global markets fragment and traditional safe havens are re-evaluated, Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a non-correlated, reliable asset, joining gold as a key hedge in uncertain times.
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