Optimism is surging within the crypto community regarding the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), particularly after Ripple’s prolonged legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) came to an end.
On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse confirmed that the case had officially concluded. In a post on X, he announced that the SEC had dropped its appeal, bringing an end to the $1.3 billion lawsuit that began in December 2020 over alleged unregistered securities sales.
Following the announcement, Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, weighed in on X, stating that an XRP ETF is now an inevitability. He called it “obvious” that the SEC will eventually approve the product, suggesting that major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity could step in to offer it.
Polymarket Bets on XRP ETF Approval by 2025
Crypto prediction markets are echoing this sentiment. As of March 26, users on Polymarket assigned an 86% probability that an XRP ETF will receive SEC approval before the end of 2025.
The bet will be considered successful if the SEC grants approval by December 31. Currently, the Polymarket betting pool has reached $55,000 in volume. However, predictions for a mid-year approval remain more conservative, with just a 42% chance that the ETF will be approved before July 31.
Despite being a betting platform, Polymarket has built a strong reputation for accuracy. A Dune Analytics study found that Polymarket’s predictions had an over 90% accuracy rate within one month of market resolution.
XRP Price Sees Modest 5% Gain After SEC Case Ends
Despite the significance of Ripple’s legal victory, XRP’s price movement has been relatively muted. On March 19, XRP was trading at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At present, it sits around $2.44—marking just a 5% increase.
Analysts suggest that this outcome was largely expected. On March 21, Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, noted that the market had already factored in the SEC case’s conclusion, leading to limited price action.
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