The possibility of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve under President-elect Donald Trump is gaining significant traction, particularly on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
On Kalshi, a regulated derivatives exchange, traders now estimate a 70% chance of Trump initiating a Bitcoin reserve initiative by 2026. Meanwhile, users on Polymarket, a platform specializing in cryptocurrency-related predictions, assign a 42% probability of Trump making this move within his first 100 days in office. These probabilities represent a 20% jump compared to earlier this month, reflecting growing optimism among bettors.
Additionally, participants on these platforms anticipate that Bitcoin and Ethereum could reach all-time highs in 2025, indicating broader bullish sentiment for the crypto market.
Betting Markets Lead the Charge
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket operate by enabling users to trade contracts tied to real-world events, with prices adjusting in response to perceived likelihoods. Both platforms gained significant attention during the 2024 US elections, collectively handling over $4 billion in trading volume. They also outperformed traditional polling by accurately forecasting Trump’s election victory and the Republican Party’s success in Congress.
Crypto Commitments
Trump’s pledge to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, announced at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, has fueled much of the current speculation. He emphasized that his administration would safeguard these Bitcoin holdings and would not consider liquidating them.
In a parallel development, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the BITCOIN Act in November, a legislative proposal aimed at requiring the Treasury Department to accumulate 1 million BTC over five years. Lummis, a prominent advocate for cryptocurrencies, has long championed pro-Bitcoin policies on Capitol Hill.
Expanded Focus on Digital Assets
Trump’s recent statements suggest an openness to expanding the reserve beyond Bitcoin to include other cryptocurrencies such as USD Coin, Solana, and XRP. According to a report from the New York Post on Jan. 16, the president-elect is also considering an executive order that would designate cryptocurrency as a national priority, potentially fast-tracking regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
A Game-Changing Policy
If implemented, a US Bitcoin reserve could have a transformative impact on the digital asset market. Cryptocurrency research firm CoinShares highlighted the potential in a Jan. 10 report, suggesting that such a policy would surpass the impact of the 2024 Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches in driving adoption.
“The enactment of the Bitcoin Act could deliver a more lasting and substantial boost to Bitcoin than the ETF rollout,” CoinShares wrote.
As Jan. 20 approaches, the crypto industry eagerly awaits whether these bold predictions will materialize under Trump’s administration, potentially marking a historic moment for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.
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