BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the famous four-year Bitcoin cycle is officially over — but not for the reasons most traders assume.
In a recent blog post, Hayes explained that while the four-year rhythm once guided Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust patterns, it’s now obsolete and “will fail this time.” According to him, the real forces shaping Bitcoin’s price aren’t halving events or institutional adoption — but global liquidity and monetary supply dynamics, especially between the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan.
Why the 4-Year Pattern No Longer Applies
Hayes noted that previous bull markets didn’t end simply because of timing but because money supply tightened — when central banks and governments reduced liquidity. This time, he argues, things are fundamentally different.
He pointed out that the U.S. Treasury has injected about $2.5 trillion from the Fed’s Reverse Repo facility into the market by issuing more short-term Treasury bills. At the same time, President Donald Trump reportedly wants to “run it hot” with looser financial conditions to boost growth and reduce debt pressure.
In addition, the U.S. is discussing bank deregulation to boost lending, and the Federal Reserve has already started cutting interest rates even though inflation remains above its 2% goal. According to CME futures data, traders now see a 94% chance of another rate cut in October and an 80% chance of one more in December.
Liquidity Drives Bitcoin, Not Halvings
Hayes emphasized that Bitcoin’s biggest rallies have always aligned with periods of massive liquidity expansion — not halving events.
The first Bitcoin bull run (2011–2013) coincided with the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and China’s credit boom, ending when both tightened monetary policy.
The ICO boom (2015–2017) was fueled mostly by Chinese credit expansion and yuan devaluation, which later reversed as liquidity dried up.
The COVID-19 bull run (2020–2021) was powered by U.S. money printing, with China staying cautious — and it ended when the Fed started raising rates.
Why This Cycle Is Different
This time, Hayes believes China will play a smaller role but won’t act as a drag either. Instead of draining liquidity, Chinese policymakers are shifting toward measures aimed at ending deflation — effectively removing one of Bitcoin’s major headwinds.
With the U.S. making money more accessible and China no longer tightening, Hayes thinks Bitcoin’s bull market can continue without facing the typical four-year collapse.
He concluded:
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They’ve made it clear — money will be cheaper and more abundant. Therefore, Bitcoin rises in anticipation. The king is dead, long live the king.”
Not Everyone Agrees
Despite Hayes’ reasoning, many analysts still believe in the classic four-year rhythm. Data from Glassnode in August suggested Bitcoin’s price continues to “mirror historical cycles,” and Saad Ahmed, Head of APAC at Gemini, recently said that “some form of a recurring cycle” will likely persist.
Whether Hayes is right or not, one thing is clear — the next Bitcoin era won’t look like the last.
