Despite facing one of the biggest liquidation waves in recent crypto history, analysts still believe October could close in positive territory — continuing the market’s well-known “Uptober” trend.
“After witnessing the largest liquidation ever recorded in crypto, I honestly thought October would turn blood red,” said crypto analyst and podcaster Scott Melker on Wednesday.
Yet, according to Melker, the fact that markets have managed to stay afloat “feels like a small miracle,” adding that he doesn’t see signs of a new bear market emerging just yet.
Following the weekend crash, the total crypto market cap quickly bounced back to the $4 trillion mark before slightly cooling as Bitcoin slipped below $111,000 again on Tuesday after failing to extend its rebound.
Melker highlighted that the current situation differs from earlier cycles: “This isn’t 2017 or 2021 when external shocks like ICO mania, China’s mining ban, or FTX’s collapse were in play. What we’re seeing now is purely structural — a market-wide reset that forces everyone to reprice risk and re-evaluate what’s sustainable.”
Volatility Is Part of the Road to New Highs
According to Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, short-term turbulence is inevitable as the market processes the effects of the aggressive deleveraging.
“Investor sentiment hasn’t fully recovered yet, and overall risk appetite remains limited. Market reactions are highly sensitive to major headlines,” Sun explained.
However, he added that “while short-term volatility should be expected, there’s no reason for excessive pessimism.” From a broader perspective, factors like “monetary easing, easing geopolitical tensions, and improving liquidity conditions” should continue to dominate the macro landscape.
October’s Historical Strength Still in Play
October has earned its nickname ‘Uptober’ for a reason — Bitcoin has posted gains in 10 of the last 12 years during this month. Even though it’s currently down around 0.6%, historical patterns suggest that the latter half of the month usually brings the strongest returns.
For instance, Bitcoin gained 16% after October 15 in 2024, 29% in 2023, and 18% in 2020 during the same period.
Melker also drew attention to gold’s recent record-breaking rally, suggesting that Bitcoin could benefit next. “Investors aren’t panicking — they’re rotating. If gold can reach new highs, imagine what happens when capital starts flowing back into Bitcoin.”
Uptober’s Broader Catalysts
The recent trade-related fears that helped trigger the weekend sell-off may already be fading. A White House spokesperson confirmed that President Trump and President Xi Jinping are expected to meet soon to discuss trade relations.
“Trade disputes aren’t zero-sum — both sides want a larger share of the benefits, meaning the final outcome could be far less dramatic than the current sentiment implies,” said Sun.
Additional bullish narratives — including potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year and the ongoing debasement trade — continue to support the idea that Uptober might still deliver a strong finish.
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