Bitcoin has slipped again as the crypto market lags behind gold and U.S. equities, both of which continue to chart new record levels. The question is whether this marks weakness in the current bull cycle or just another temporary pause.
Fresh insights from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlight four main forces weighing on Bitcoin and altcoins: Federal Reserve policy, stablecoin flows, excessive leverage, and long-term market behavior.
Crypto stuck at the back of the liquidity line
While gold and stock indices have repeatedly broken into fresh all-time highs, Bitcoin’s momentum has stalled. To some, this suggests crypto hasn’t yet cemented its place as a mainstream asset.
But according to CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan, the story is more about timing than failure.
“In the initial stages of rate cuts, institutional capital typically moves first into assets with deep liquidity, such as equities and gold,” they explained. “Crypto—especially altcoins—tends to benefit later, once risk appetite broadens.”
XWIN pointed out that the current setup looks strikingly similar to 2024: a surge after Fed policy easing, followed by a correction when liquidity didn’t immediately rotate into crypto. Only once traditional markets cooled did Bitcoin and Ethereum stage a stronger rally.
Bitcoin’s tendency to lag behind gold before eventually catching up is a well-documented market trait.
Stablecoin reserves signal hesitation
Another factor delaying Bitcoin’s breakout is the way stablecoins are being used. The total supply of stablecoins has climbed to a new peak above $308 billion this month. However, flows show more are leaving exchanges than entering.
That suggests investors are cautious, preferring to hold capital off-exchange, bridge funds to other ecosystems, or deploy liquidity privately—rather than putting it directly into Bitcoin or Ethereum buys.
Leverage and hedging dominate trader behavior
Data from derivatives markets indicates traders are leaning toward defensive positioning, favoring hedges and leveraged plays instead of aggressive spot accumulation. This is typical during periods of sideways action when conviction remains low.
“Lag, then leap” — history may repeat
Despite short-term weakness, XWIN argues that Bitcoin historically lags behind equities’ all-time highs before making its move.
“After U.S. stock markets hit new peaks, BTC has averaged gains of around 12% in the following 30 days and 35% within 90 days,” they noted.
That said, macro headwinds like quantitative tightening, U.S. Treasury liquidity absorption, and upcoming derivatives expiries could slow things in the near term.
One key date is this Friday’s $22.6 billion options expiry, which could inject volatility and shape Bitcoin’s next directional move.
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