With the U.S. election approaching, many crypto traders are watching the markets closely, anticipating how the results might impact prices. However, one analyst cautions that if the election outcome remains uncertain due to a close race, this could unleash unexpected price swings.
FalconX’s head of research, David Lawant, highlighted in a Nov. 1 market report that “additional volatility could emerge if results are too close to call, delaying a clear outcome.”
Market participants relieved to be done with ‘directionless trading’
Lawant observed that since April, the crypto market has been in a holding pattern, and traders are eager to see the election pass, allowing markets to settle. “After six months of directionless trading, markets appear eager to move past election uncertainty toward firmer ground,” he stated.
Bitcoin, specifically, has remained within a range of $53,991 to $73,149 since April, showing little sustained momentum.
Lawant also pointed out that while investors are hopeful for positive trends regardless of which party takes the win on Nov. 5, some expect a Donald Trump victory could yield “stronger gains” given his administration’s pro-industry stance.
In line with this sentiment, Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal shared that “a Trump victory would likely provide a dopamine hit” to the market.
Moreover, options data indicates that traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin reaching new highs in the weeks following the election. On Deribit, the crypto exchange, open interest (OI) for call contracts expiring in late November is clustered around the $80,000 level, reflecting bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin and Solana are the standouts, says Lawant
Lawant singled out Bitcoin and Solana as prominent players in discussions about potential market leaders. “BTC, serving as crypto’s proxy, could further benefit from ETF flows—2024’s primary source of new capital,” he noted, adding that Solana’s strong narrative also positions it as a key asset for profit diversification. However, he remarked that Ether remains “notably absent from most discussions.”
This perspective comes on the heels of comments from Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, who recently stated that the U.S. election outcome is unlikely to derail the bullish trajectory of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which he anticipates could reach $100,000 per coin in the near term, regardless of which candidate wins.
“I don’t think it really matters. Everything is going up now. The election will pass,” Tapiero stated during a panel discussion at the Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City, Utah.
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