The cryptocurrency market appears to be entering the “final phase of the current bull cycle,” signaling a need for heightened caution among investors, according to the analytics firm CryptoQuant.
This ongoing bull run, which began in January 2023, is anticipated to peak by the first quarter of 2025, or possibly extend into the second quarter, according to Crypto Dan, a contributor to CryptoQuant. In a post dated January 6, Crypto Dan noted, “The significant inflow of fresh capital and increased investments from existing players suggest that we are now approaching the latter stages of this market cycle.”
One key metric supporting this view is the proportion of Bitcoin held for less than a month, which surged to 36% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This trend mirrors patterns observed during previous market tops, indicating that speculative activity is on the rise. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests this ratio may climb even higher, potentially doubling or quadrupling, before a correction sets in and the market transitions to a bear phase.
Despite these signs, the analytics firm notes that opportunities for substantial returns in both Bitcoin and altcoins remain on the table. However, the report advises a measured approach: “While gains are still possible, prudence and effective risk management are strongly recommended.”
Diverging Perspectives
CryptoQuant’s cautious outlook contrasts with the more optimistic predictions from other industry analysts, who foresee a prolonged bull market stretching through 2025. Many expect new all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, accompanied by broader industry advancements.
Research firm Steno Research projects that 2025 could be a standout year for the crypto market, with both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) achieving record valuations. Similarly, asset manager VanEck anticipates a “medium-term peak” for the bull market in early 2025, with a subsequent rally to new highs by year-end. According to a December report from VanEck’s head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, Bitcoin could reach $180,000, while Ethereum might surpass $6,000 at the height of the cycle.
Further supporting this optimism, traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi predict significant milestones in 2025, including record-breaking prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, approval of new cryptocurrency-focused ETFs in the United States, and the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Final Thoughts
While the cryptocurrency market’s trajectory remains uncertain, the data underscores the importance of balancing optimism with caution. Whether the current bull cycle ends sooner or extends further, investors are advised to remain vigilant and adapt their strategies to evolving market conditions.
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