Bitcoin might be entering a make-or-break phase, as new volatility data suggests the market has around 100 days to either go parabolic or lose its bullish momentum.
According to trader Tony “The Bull” Severino, who shared his analysis on X this Wednesday, Bitcoin’s next big move depends on what happens with the Bollinger Bands, a classic tool used to measure market volatility and momentum shifts.
Bitcoin Awaits Its Next Big Move
Bollinger Bands on Bitcoin’s weekly chart have now tightened to levels not seen before — often a sign that a major price swing is on the horizon. Analysts are watching closely to see if BTC will break above or below the bands, which could signal the next major trend.
Severino noted that despite recent attempts, Bitcoin has not yet managed to break decisively above the upper band:
“So far, BTCUSD hasn’t shown strong momentum above the upper band,” he said. “Based on historical consolidation periods, it could take more than 100 days before we see a valid breakout — or even a breakdown if BTC turns bearish.”
This timeline is derived from previous Bollinger Band squeeze patterns observed since the start of Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market in early 2023.
Beware of “Head Fakes” Before the Real Move
Severino warned that early fake breakouts are common during these setups, referring to Bitcoin’s brief surge above $126,000, which may have been one such “head fake.”
“We might see another fake move down before Bitcoin truly takes off higher,” he added.
The Bigger Picture: Has Bitcoin Peaked Yet?
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets tend to reach a “blow-off top” around October. However, the current price action hasn’t yet shown the explosive growth typical of that phase.
Prominent analyst Rekt Capital recently argued that this cycle is taking longer than previous ones:
“It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked, because that would make this cycle one of the shortest ever,” he said when BTC was trading near $124,500.
This week, Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin could now be entering a new “price discovery uptrend,” suggesting the next chapter of the bull market might be about to unfold.
Parabolic or Over?
Severino concluded that the direction Bitcoin takes once the Bollinger Bands finally expand will determine the fate of the three-year bull run:
“This setup could either send Bitcoin parabolic — or mark the end of its mature bull phase.”
