Bitcoin’s valuation indicators suggest the current bull market still has significant room to run, with no signs of the typical overvaluation that often signals a market peak. Analysts are now targeting a potential price of $146,000 for the cryptocurrency within this cycle.
A recent report from research firm CryptoQuant, released on November 27, highlights that the value held by new Bitcoin holders is still behind levels seen in previous market cycles. At present, the holdings of new investors represent just over 50% of Bitcoin’s total market value, whereas in past bull markets, such as those in 2017 and 2021, new holders accounted for more than 90% and 80% of the total, respectively.
This slower pace of retail involvement could explain why Bitcoin has not yet reached typical overbought levels. According to CryptoQuant, an uptick in retail activity is often a key feature of market peaks. In the months since October, retail investors have reduced their holdings by 41,000 BTC, while larger institutional investors have been much more active, adding 130,000 BTC to their positions.
“Previous bull markets have seen aggressive buying from retail investors at their peaks, a scenario that is not occurring now,” CryptoQuant explains.
The shift in market dynamics suggests that larger institutional investors are driving the accumulation phase, with Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) investors leading the charge. In November, Bitcoin ETF inflows reached an all-time high of $3.1 billion in the week ending November 22, the same week Bitcoin hit a record price of $99,655.50.
Despite reaching these highs, Bitcoin’s price dipped to around $91,000 by November 26, failing to break the $100,000 resistance level. Some analysts predict that the cryptocurrency could experience a 30% correction before ultimately surpassing the six-figure threshold.
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has been firmly in the bull zone since early November, showing a steady increase since then. However, it remains below the overheated levels seen during the previous cycle’s peak in March 2024, when Bitcoin briefly traded above $70,000.
From a realized price standpoint, the current target for Bitcoin’s price is $146,000. This target aligns with the top price range seen during previous cycles, such as in April-May 2021. According to CryptoQuant, the Profit and Loss (P&L) Index has not yet reached overvalued levels, suggesting that Bitcoin could still see further price increases in the current cycle.
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