Bitcoin traders are gearing up for a critical $19.8 billion options expiry set to occur on Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. The cryptocurrency’s recent rally past $100,000 has caught bearish investors off guard, leaving bullish participants in a strong position to leverage the event and potentially push Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
At present, the total open interest for call options (bets on price increases) amounts to $12 billion, while put options (bets on price decreases) total $7.8 billion. Deribit continues to dominate the market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. The recent 68% surge in Bitcoin’s price over the past three months has diminished the viability of many bearish put options.
With the expiry approaching, traders on both sides of the market are likely to intensify efforts to sway Bitcoin’s spot price. Bulls are eyeing levels above $110,000, but their aspirations alone don’t guarantee success.
Bullish Momentum Builds Ahead of Year-End
Institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) driving $4.5 billion in inflows during the first two weeks of December. Notably, MicroStrategy made headlines by purchasing 21,550 BTC between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8 at an average cost of $98,783 per coin. Similarly, MARA Holdings, a prominent Bitcoin mining firm, announced the acquisition of 11,744 BTC on Dec. 10.
Another factor bolstering bullish sentiment is the prospect of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve. Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a plan for the U.S. to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over time, with other states like Texas considering similar measures. A Texas lawmaker recently introduced legislation to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for at least five years, clarifying that no taxpayer funds would be used for these acquisitions.
Given these developments, bullish traders seem to hold the upper hand heading into the options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin maintains a level near $100,500 on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put options will retain any value. Options to sell at $100,000 or lower would become worthless if the market price stays above that mark.
Bears Target $95,000 to Limit Losses
Below are several potential scenarios based on current price trends, outlining theoretical outcomes based on open interest imbalances. These estimates exclude more complex trading strategies, such as selling puts to gain bullish exposure:
- $90,000–$95,000: $4.6 billion in call options vs. $1.1 billion in puts. Calls lead by $3.6 billion.
- $95,000–$100,000: $5.6 billion in calls vs. $520 million in puts. Calls dominate by $5.1 billion.
- $100,000–$105,000: $7.12 billion in calls vs. $240 million in puts. Calls lead by $6.9 billion.
- $105,000–$112,000: $8.13 billion in calls vs. $120 million in puts. Calls have a $8 billion edge.
For bearish traders to avoid steep losses, they must drive Bitcoin’s price below $95,000 before the Dec. 27 expiry. Meanwhile, bullish investors stand to maximize their profits by pushing BTC above $105,000, potentially achieving a new all-time high.
If bulls succeed in securing this milestone, it could create a wave of optimism heading into 2026, establishing a strong foundation for further price gains. As the options expiry approaches, all eyes will be on Bitcoin’s spot price, with market dynamics poised for heightened volatility.
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