Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States kicked off October — historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest months — with a surge of investor enthusiasm, raking in $3.24 billion in net inflows and marking their second-best week since launch.
According to data from SoSoValue, the total nearly matched the all-time record of $3.38 billion set during the week ending November 22, 2024. This impressive turnaround follows a week of $902 million in outflows, signaling a sharp shift in sentiment as investors grow more confident about risk assets amid expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts.
“Anticipation of another rate cut has clearly flipped the market mood,” noted Iliya Kalchev, research analyst at Nexo. “ETF demand has returned in full force, bringing four-week inflows close to $4 billion. At the current pace, Q4 flows could effectively pull more than 100,000 BTC out of circulation — over twice the amount newly mined.”
Kalchev added that the accelerating ETF demand and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders are helping Bitcoin form a stronger price foundation near critical support levels.
These renewed ETF inflows may act as a powerful tailwind for Bitcoin throughout “Uptober” — a nickname traders use for October due to its historically bullish performance. Bitcoin’s price briefly touched $123,996 on Friday, its highest level since mid-August, according to TradingView data.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said during Token2049 in Singapore that Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000 could trigger “a very quick move” toward new all-time highs near $150,000 before 2025 ends.
Analysts see “Uptober” setting up for a potential breakout
Bitcoin ETFs are now viewed as the clearest indicator of overall sentiment in the crypto market. “Uptober is showing early signs of a Q4 breakout, driven by ETF inflows, seasonality, and a more dovish macro environment,” Kalchev explained.
Still, the market’s next moves will likely hinge on several key macro events next week — including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
Investors are also eyeing the delayed U.S. jobs report, which could influence short-term market volatility depending on the duration of the ongoing government shutdown — the first since 2018.
Historically, October has been Bitcoin’s second-strongest month, averaging gains of around 20%, followed by November with 46% and December with roughly 4%, according to CoinGlass data.
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