Bitcoin is hinting at a renewed bull run as whale activity on exchanges stabilizes this month.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, large-scale Bitcoin transactions into exchanges are showing signs of forming a lower high in February, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics.
Whales Signal the Next Bullish Phase
Historically, Bitcoin’s market cycles peak when whale inflows to exchanges decline from their recent highs. CryptoQuant’s latest analysis indicates that the 30-day simple moving average of the Whale Exchange Ratio—a measure of the top 10 exchange inflows compared to overall inflows—stood at 0.46 on February 12. This marks a level close to multi-year highs, rebounding from 0.36 in mid-December, when BTC/USD was hovering near its previous all-time high.
Since then, Bitcoin’s price has pulled back while whale activity has risen. However, this trend appears to be slowing down.
“Since late 2024, this metric has seen strong upward momentum, though its growth has eased in the past two weeks without a clear reversal,” CryptoQuant contributor Grizzly noted.
Historical patterns suggest that a drop in whale deposits on spot exchanges often precedes a fresh Bitcoin rally.
Despite a spike in whale inflows earlier this week, new large-scale investors are emerging, potentially providing price support for BTC.
The cost basis for major investors holding Bitcoin for up to six months sits just below $90,000. This level has remained firm for over three months, making it a crucial point for traders to watch.
Bitcoin Miners Return to Accumulation
Miners, another influential group in the market, have shifted back to accumulating Bitcoin this month.
This comes after six months of consistent outflows from miner wallets and aligns with a fresh “capitulation” phase—historically marking local market bottoms.
Back in July, before miner sell-offs accelerated, research suggested that their impact on the market was already diminishing compared to institutional inflows, particularly from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Now, with miner accumulation resuming, the market may be approaching another pivotal moment.
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