Analysts Identify 3 Key Metrics Signaling a Bull Run for Altcoins

According to several crypto analysts, many altcoins are showing signs of bullish momentum that could soon lead to a market rally, often referred to as an “up-only season.”

A pseudonymous analyst known as Moustache recently posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Oct. 11, stating, “Altcoin Season Index has been forming one of the most bullish patterns for 3.5 years.” Moustache was highlighting an inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern that has emerged on Blockchaincenter’s Altcoin Season Index chart between 2022 and 2024.

The IH&S pattern is a widely-recognized bullish formation that indicates a potential reversal of a downtrend, signaling that sellers are losing control, and buyers are gaining strength. In this case, the shift suggests that Bitcoin’s dominance in the market could decline, allowing altcoins to take the lead — a typical hallmark of an approaching altcoin season.

Moustache added, “I believe we are nearing an ‘up-only season.’”

Currently, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 39, which means that 39% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, as per Blockchaincenter’s data. While this is a notable recovery, it falls short of the 75% threshold required to officially declare an altcoin season.

In addition to this, another analyst, Titan of Crypto, pointed out a bullish crossover in the Stochastic RSI — a momentum indicator that compares the relative position of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) over a specific time period. According to Titan, this crossover, visible on the three-week chart, is a key signal that “a major rally in altcoins could be just around the corner.”

A bullish crossover occurs when the Stochastic RSI rises above its signal line, often foretelling a potential upward price movement.

“Typically, after a bullish crossover on the 3-week Stochastic RSI, the market sees a significant upward push,” Titan explained.

Altcoin total market cap begins to look bullish

The broader recovery in the altcoin market is also evident in TOTAL3 — the market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ether. Since Sept. 6, TOTAL3 has been on the rise.

According to data from TradingView, the total market cap of altcoins (TOTAL2) has climbed by 19%, going from a low of $516.7 billion on Sept. 6 to a high of $617.8 billion on Oct. 7. Currently, it’s retracing slightly to $601.5 billion, but the overall trend remains positive. This movement has pushed TOTAL3 above a critical support zone between $589 billion and $596 billion.

Interestingly, all the major moving averages — including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) — fall within this demand zone, further supporting the bullish case.

As the relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart approached overbought territory at 69 on Sept. 30, some traders began to lock in profits. This indicated that altcoins were starting to appear overvalued.

Despite this pullback, altcoins are still maintaining their upward trajectory, as they remain above the ascending trendline. The recent move in the RSI from 45 to 53 over the last few days suggests that the market still leans towards bullish momentum.

If TOTAL3 continues to hold above the key resistance level, altcoins could extend their recovery, which might pave the way for the much-anticipated altcoin season to fully emerge.

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