According to analysts, altcoins may have one last major rally in this cycle—but only those with strong utility and network activity are likely to experience meaningful price growth.
“There’s a good chance we’ll see one more push from altcoins,” said Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts during an April 3 X livestream with co-founder Raoul Pal. “The key question is whether this will be a sustained rally lasting six to twelve months.”
Network Activity: The Key Indicator for Altcoin Trading
Coutts emphasized that network activity will be a crucial factor in determining which altcoins perform well. “At this point, it’s hard to say for sure, but I believe high-quality altcoins where activity is picking up will see a strong recovery,” he explained.
In January highlighted that over 36 million altcoins exist today. Yet, Ethereum continues to dominate with 55.56% of the total value locked (TVL), followed by Solana (6.89%), Bitcoin (5.77%), BNB Smart Chain (5.68%), and Tron (5.54%), according to CoinGecko data.
Coutts advised traders to follow where network activity is concentrated, using it as a guide for trading decisions. He predicts that the altcoin market will gain momentum within the next two months.
“I expect altcoins to start gaining traction by June, assuming Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs by then,” he stated.
Altcoin Indicators Suggest Market Is Not There Yet
Despite this outlook, several key indicators suggest that an altcoin season isn’t imminent.
The Altcoin Speculation Index by Capriole Investments has dropped to 12%, marking a 53% decline since December 25. Over the same period, Ether has fallen by 49% from its $3,490 peak, according to CoinMarketCap.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index from CoinMarketCap—which evaluates how the top 100 cryptocurrencies have performed against Bitcoin over the last 90 days—currently stands at 14 out of 100, signaling a Bitcoin-dominated market.
While Bitcoin dominance sits at 62.84%—a level traditionally seen as a potential altcoin season trigger—some experts argue that this metric is losing relevance.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently stated that Bitcoin dominance “no longer defines altseason—trading volume does.”
In the broader market, blockchain network activity has recently declined. Active addresses on the Solana network dropped to a weekly average of 9.5 million—down nearly 40% from November 2024’s 15.6 million.
With mixed signals in the market, it remains to be seen whether altcoins will truly experience a final push before the cycle ends.
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