New data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) suggests Bitcoin’s current market cycle may stretch further than usual — diverging from the typical four-year rhythm many investors have come to expect.
Historically, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown a close relationship with Bitcoin’s major market peaks. The pattern, first highlighted by Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and later echoed by other macro analysts, indicates that Bitcoin’s biggest tops often coincide with PMI highs.
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted that all three previous Bitcoin bull market peaks have overlapped with the PMI reaching cyclical highs. If this alignment continues, he said, the current cycle could last “significantly longer than past ones.”
At the moment, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has stayed under the neutral 50 level for seven straight months — a sign that U.S. manufacturing remains in contraction. A decisive move back above 50 would point to renewed industrial expansion, which historically aligns with stronger Bitcoin performance.
Earlier this year, the PMI briefly climbed into growth territory before falling again, highlighting persistent weakness in the manufacturing economy.
US Manufacturing Faces Headwinds
The year began with optimism, fueled by expectations of pro-business policies under the Trump administration. But that momentum has been held back by steep tariffs, global trade uncertainty, and waning demand across several sectors.
ISM’s September report showed mixed results: prices climbed, but exports and imports continued to decline. This uneven picture suggests that while inflationary pressures persist, manufacturing demand remains soft.
Despite the slump, ISM noted that manufacturing now represents a smaller share of total U.S. GDP — meaning a weak PMI reading doesn’t necessarily imply an overall economic downturn. Historically, any sustained PMI above 42.3 has still correlated with economic growth.
A purchasing manager from the transportation equipment sector told ISM that “business continues to be severely depressed,” blaming heavy tariffs and rising supply chain costs. “Companies are beginning to pass tariffs through as surcharges, increasing prices by as much as 20%,” they added.
If this cycle indeed mirrors past macro trends but unfolds more slowly, Bitcoin’s next major peak could arrive later than expected — possibly marking one of the longest expansion phases in its history.
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