Bitcoin targets breakout as markets bet on near-certain Fed rate cut

Bitcoin hovered near $112,000 on Sunday, with traders eyeing the potential for a strong weekly close and a continuation of the current bullish trend.

Bitcoin shows strength ahead of weekly close

According to data from TradingView, Bitcoin maintained a tight trading range through the weekend, following a late rebound on Friday that lifted the price toward the upper end of the week’s range. The move came after softer U.S. inflation data, which boosted confidence across risk assets.

Market analysts noted that volatility typically rises around the weekly close, with several traders anticipating new local highs if BTC can hold above resistance.

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Crypto analyst Crypto Caesar highlighted that the $112,000 zone was a critical level to watch.

“A clean break and close above $112K could confirm continuation toward $123K,” he posted on X.

Investor Ted Pillows echoed a similar sentiment, noting Bitcoin’s short-term strength.

“We’ve seen four consecutive green daily candles — someone’s clearly accumulating here. If BTC reclaims the $112K–$114K area, a quick move toward $118K could follow,” he said.

Meanwhile, on-chain observers pointed to the $113,000 mark as a pivotal cost basis level for short-term holders — those who have held Bitcoin for less than six months.

“If BTC reclaims the short-term holder cost basis around $113K, a run toward $130K–$144K becomes much more likely,” wrote the analytics account Frank Fetter on X.

Fed rate-cut expectations drive optimism

Traders are also watching macroeconomic catalysts that could further fuel Bitcoin’s rally.

Following another round of soft inflation data, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its upcoming Oct. 29 meeting. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now places the probability of that move above 98%.

Market commentators suggest this could mark the start of a broader global monetary easing phase.

According to The Kobeissi Letter,

“Over the past six months, 82% of the world’s central banks have lowered rates — the largest proportion since 2020. Historically, we only see this kind of synchronized easing during major economic slowdowns.”

With global liquidity increasing and rate cuts nearly priced in, investors are once again turning to Bitcoin as a leading risk asset — potentially setting the stage for another leg higher in the coming weeks.


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