Bitcoin has started October with a modest pullback — down around 4.3% so far — yet optimism surrounding its historically bullish month remains high. Since 2019, Bitcoin has delivered an average October gain of nearly 20%, with a median return of about 15%. While 2025’s “Uptober” hasn’t matched that pace yet, investors are watching upcoming policy moves for potential catalysts.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96.7% probability that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. A rate cut would inject more liquidity into markets, reduce borrowing costs, and typically boost appetite for risk assets — from tech stocks to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Institutional demand is already showing signs of anticipation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $5 billion in net inflows during the first half of October, reflecting renewed confidence among large investors. Across public companies, total Bitcoin holdings have reached $117 billion, up 28% quarter-over-quarter, with corporate treasuries now owning over one million BTC. In Q3 alone, 48 new firms joined the growing institutional wave into digital assets.
Stocks Point to Bitcoin’s Next Direction
Bitcoin’s short-term weakness is also being shaped by the broader U.S. equity market. Macro analyst Jesse Colombo highlighted that Bitcoin’s 92% correlation with the Nasdaq effectively makes it a “leveraged bet on tech.” That connection was evident last Friday, when the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Dow Jones dropped 1.9%, and the Nasdaq 100 plunged over 4.2% — their steepest daily declines since April — dragging Bitcoin lower with them.
The sell-off followed renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, including talk of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which hurt global risk sentiment. However, as markets regained footing earlier this week, U.S. stocks began recovering — though Bitcoin’s rebound has been slower.
According to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, this correction mirrors patterns from the late 1990s “super bull” phase, when speculative assets experienced brief but sharp pullbacks before continuing higher.
If U.S. equities extend their recovery through earnings season, the backdrop could turn bullish again for Bitcoin. A rebound in growth and tech stocks, combined with looser monetary policy, may help carry the “Uptober” spirit through to a strong monthly close.
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