With October only days away, traders are split on whether the much-anticipated “Uptober” rally will live up to its reputation.
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, BTC has finished the month in the green 10 out of 12 times, earning October its nickname “Uptober.” The last time Bitcoin closed October with losses was back in 2018, when it slipped 3.8%. In stronger market years like 2017 and 2021, BTC surged 48% and 40% during the month. If history were to repeat itself in this cycle, Bitcoin could climb toward $165,000 from current price levels.
What’s fueling the “Uptober” narrative?
Bitcoiner Kyle Chassé pointed to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with CME futures data showing a 92% probability. According to him, this easing cycle is already priced in and could inject liquidity into markets — exactly the kind of environment crypto tends to thrive in.
Analyst “Sykodelic” also suggested that BTC could dip further before a sharp October reversal. They highlighted $112,500 as the key level before markets could shift into “the final euphoric leg” of the cycle.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, added his own bullish take, claiming that once the U.S. Treasury completes its goal of filling the Treasury General Account — which recently passed $850 billion — crypto markets will enter an “up only” phase.
A cautious outlook
Not everyone shares the same enthusiasm. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, warned that rallies could be restrained due to low volatility, reduced inflow momentum, and profit-taking behavior. He argued that long-term investors may need to wait longer before Bitcoin retests new all-time highs.
Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, echoed this caution, saying that macroeconomic uncertainty and a relatively stable September make an Uptober breakout less likely. Still, he noted that if the Fed takes stronger action to stimulate the economy, sentiment could shift quickly.
Markets stumble ahead of October
For now, crypto markets are showing weakness. On Monday, total market capitalization fell by roughly $80 billion, with Bitcoin sliding to a twelve-day low of $114,270. Ethereum wasn’t spared either, dropping over 4% to dip below $4,300 — its lowest level in two weeks.
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