1. Bitcoin still struggling under $110K
BTC kicked off the week with fresh lows near $107,200 before bouncing back toward $110K. Traders remain divided: some expect a deeper test of $100K support, while others eye a potential short squeeze toward the $112K–$115K zone where liquidations are stacked.
Popular trader CrypNuevo sees $100K as a psychological level with heavy long bids, warning that a dip even to $94K isn’t out of the question. Still, he views the recent lows as a possible “deviation,” leaving room for BTC to recover toward $117K.
2. Macro spotlight: Tariffs & U.S. labor data
With U.S. markets closed for Labor Day, attention shifts to tariff uncertainty after a federal court ruled President Trump exceeded his authority when imposing them. Trump has vowed to defend the measures, keeping markets on edge.
Later this week, unemployment data will set the tone ahead of the September Fed meeting. Markets expect the first rate cut in months, with CME FedWatch showing a 90%+ chance of a 0.25% reduction. Liquidity injections from cuts would likely favor risk assets like Bitcoin.
3. Gold approaches record highs
While Bitcoin hesitates, gold is surging. Prices touched $3,489/oz, just shy of April’s all-time high. Analysts credit strong seasonal trends and last week’s inflation data for the rally.
Notorious Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff argues gold’s breakout is a bearish sign for BTC, insisting the digital asset may still drop lower as investors rotate back to traditional safe havens.
4. Institutional flows showing weakness
After strong ETF inflows earlier in the week, Friday saw $126M in U.S. Bitcoin ETF outflows. Broader data shows institutional buying is at its lowest since April, though still absorbing around 200% of miner supply.
August was also rough, with ETFs logging their second-worst month ever, totaling $750M in outflows.
5. Seasonal headwinds for September
History isn’t on Bitcoin’s side this month. September has averaged -3.5% returns across the last 12 years, and BTC just closed its fourth red August in a row, losing 6.5%.
Some analysts, however, argue the classic 4-year cycle is breaking down due to institutional adoption. That could mean September’s weakness may not be as bearish as past cycles suggest.
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