On Kalshi, a popular prediction market, traders are betting that Google’s Gemini will dominate the AI text model space by the end of 2025. As of this week, 57% of users are backing Gemini, up from 48% just days earlier. By contrast, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has slipped to 20% from 25%, while xAI’s Grok dropped to 15% from nearly 19%.
The prediction market will settle on Dec. 31, with results verified by the LM Arena Leaderboard — a platform that benchmarks top AI systems. Over $7.4 million has already been wagered on this outcome.
Google recently boosted Gemini with new features, including storybook mode, better reasoning, and temporary chats. Meanwhile, OpenAI has faced criticism over ChatGPT-5’s rocky debut, prompting CEO Sam Altman to defend the release online. xAI’s Grok has also drawn controversy after political bias claims and the removal of posts in which the model reportedly praised Hitler.
The broader AI race is intensifying across multiple fronts. In internet search, where many models source their information, Perplexity made headlines last week with a $34.5 billion bid to buy Google’s Chrome browser — a move that OpenAI is also reportedly exploring.
Competition is growing globally as well. China’s DeepSeek has been gaining traction with its math-focused Prover 2 model. At the same time, regulators are circling: G7 authorities have signaled possible antitrust action, while Google and Meta are already tied up in lawsuits that could reshape the industry.
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