Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy (trading under the ticker MSTR and often referred to as “Strategy”), is edging closer to inclusion in the S&P 500—provided Bitcoin doesn’t suffer a significant drop before the end of June, according to financial analyst Jeff Walton.
In a recent video update, Walton estimated that MicroStrategy has about a 91% likelihood of joining the S&P 500 index this quarter, assuming Bitcoin avoids falling more than 10% from its current price levels.
Bitcoin Stability Is Key to MSTR’s Earnings
To meet the S&P 500’s eligibility criteria, a company must post positive cumulative earnings across the last four quarters. While MicroStrategy has seen losses over the past three quarters, the recent accounting shift—under ASU 2023-08—now allows its Bitcoin holdings to be marked to market value, meaning gains or losses from BTC are reflected directly in its net income.
Walton noted that if Bitcoin remains above $95,240 through June 30, Strategy’s Q2 earnings should be strong enough to offset prior losses and meet the index’s requirements. The company currently holds 592,345 BTC, the most of any publicly listed firm.
Historical Odds Favor Bitcoin Holding Its Ground
At the time of Walton’s analysis, Bitcoin was trading at $106,044. He analyzed Bitcoin’s price history since September 17, 2014, and found that in six-day periods, the price dropped more than 10% only 8.7% of the time. In contrast, 91.3% of the time, BTC remained relatively stable—supporting his probability estimate.
As the quarter draws to a close, the odds of avoiding a sharp drop improve. For example:
- 92.4% chance of no 10% drop over 5 days
- 93.4% over 4 days
- 94.5% over 3 days
- 95.8% over 2 days
- 97.6% if only one day remains
Market Tensions Add Volatility
That said, geopolitical uncertainty—such as recent tensions between Iran and Israel—has created headwinds. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 over the weekend but has since rebounded to about $106,200 at the time of writing.
If MicroStrategy clears the final hurdles, it would become the second crypto-related company to enter the S&P 500 this year, following Coinbase’s addition in May. Industry leaders see this as further validation of digital assets’ role in mainstream finance.
“It reinforces the credibility of the entire crypto space,” said Meryem Habibi, chief revenue officer at Bitpace.
Notably, MicroStrategy was also added to the Nasdaq-100 Index in December 2024, recognizing it among the top 100 firms on the Nasdaq by market cap.
For more news, find me on Twitter Giannis Andreou and subscribe to My channels Youtube and Rumble
What is your opinion on this particular topic? Leave us your comment below! We are always interested in your opinion!
