Bitcoin is on track to surpass its $109,000 peak faster than many anticipate, despite ongoing turbulence in the US macroeconomic landscape, according to a prominent crypto analyst.
“The market might not fully grasp how quickly Bitcoin can rally—potentially reaching new record highs before the second quarter ends,” stated Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.
Coutts emphasized that his outlook remains unchanged regardless of whether there is more clarity on US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies or concerns surrounding a potential recession.
Trump’s Tariffs and Bitcoin’s Recent Dip
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a decline below the $100,000 mark on February 2, with many attributing the downturn to Trump’s newly introduced tariffs and lingering uncertainty over US interest rates.
Coutts’ optimistic projection is based on several factors, including looser financial conditions, a weakening US dollar, and the People’s Bank of China increasing liquidity since early 2025.
“Financial conditions have eased significantly this month, underscored by the US dollar’s third-largest three-day drop since 2015, alongside notable declines in interest rates and Treasury bond volatility,” he explained.
He added that liquidity remains a key driver for investments across all asset classes.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $85,880, reflecting a 3.16% decline over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Referring to his March 7 post on X, Coutts highlighted that recent movements in the US Dollar Index (DXY), when analyzed through a historical perspective, reinforce a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Based on past DXY trends, he projected Bitcoin’s price could range between $102,000 in a worst-case scenario and $123,000 in a best-case scenario by June 1.
Reaching the upper target would represent a 13% increase from Bitcoin’s record high of $109,000, set on January 20.
BlackRock’s Perspective on Bitcoin’s Resilience in a Recession
Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, recently suggested that Bitcoin could thrive in a recessionary economic environment.
“I’m not sure if we’ll see a recession, but if it happens, it could serve as a major catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick stated in a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance.
This perspective aligns with recent data from CryptoQuant, which suggests Bitcoin is experiencing its weakest bullish momentum since January 2023.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index currently sits at 20, its lowest level since early 2023, signaling a subdued Bitcoin market with minimal prospects for an immediate strong rally.
Historically, if the score remains below 40 for a prolonged period, it could indicate an extended bearish phase, mirroring past market downturns.
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