The likelihood of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) debuting in the United States this year might be even stronger than a leading prediction platform’s optimistic estimate, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research.
On January 1, Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction market, forecasted a 77% chance for a US Solana ETF listing in 2025. Sigel, in a post on social media platform X, argued that this projection is “undervalued,” hinting at a more bullish outlook.
Sigel’s confidence aligns with growing industry expectations for a surge in crypto ETF approvals following Donald Trump’s recent election victory. Trump, who has expressed support for blockchain innovation, has pledged to position the US as a global leader in cryptocurrency adoption.
The Dynamics of Prediction Markets
Prediction platforms like Polymarket allow users to trade event-based contracts, with prices adjusting in real-time based on market sentiment. As of January 2, Polymarket updated its Solana ETF odds to approximately 84%, reflecting heightened anticipation among traders.
Positive Momentum for Solana ETFs
In mid-2023, VanEck and 21Shares formally applied to US regulators for the approval of spot Solana ETFs. However, regulatory hurdles arose in August when the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) flagged concerns over whether Solana’s native token, SOL, should be classified as a security rather than a commodity.
The SEC’s approval of Bitcoin and Ether ETFs—currently the only cryptocurrency ETFs trading in the US—relied on an unusual “grantor trust” framework designed for single-asset funds. Analysts suggest that the success of Solana ETFs might depend on their ability to adapt to a similar structure.
Trump’s election victory has revitalized optimism across the crypto sector, with many analysts predicting a breakthrough for several pending ETF applications. Shortly after the election, Sigel reportedly stated that the chances of a SOL ETF gaining approval in 2025 are “exceptionally high.”
Betting Big on Crypto
Polymarket has become a leading platform for cryptocurrency predictions, recording nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December, according to Dune Analytics.
During the US elections, betting markets outperformed traditional polls, accurately predicting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s dominance in Congress.
With traders betting on a record-breaking year for cryptocurrency markets in 2025—including all-time highs for Bitcoin and Ethereum and a wave of new ETF listings—optimism around Solana’s potential debut remains robust.
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