1. Bulls Eye “Upside Imbalances”
Bitcoin ended last week swinging wildly, closing near $108,600 before climbing back toward $111,000 in early Asian trading.
Market watchers say the turbulence isn’t over yet — and that volatility could accelerate through the rest of October.
Trader CrypNuevo highlighted a “cluster of short liquidations” around $116K–$117K, hinting that a short squeeze may soon play out. He also pointed to “upside imbalances” as the next key zone to monitor.
Meanwhile, investor Ted Pillows said that easing US–China tensions could fuel another leg higher if Bitcoin regains the $112K level.
Some analysts are also watching gold, which hit a record $4,380/oz last Friday. As gold cools off, Daan Crypto Trades noted that capital might rotate toward riskier assets like equities — and Bitcoin could grab a small share of that inflow.
2. The $102K Binance Wick Still Haunts the Chart
Despite the recent bounce, bears aren’t gone. Trader Roman argues Bitcoin still shows weak volume and bearish divergence on higher timeframes.
He warned that even a move up to $118K could form a head-and-shoulders pattern, unless price cleanly breaks higher.
For now, many traders still expect Bitcoin to “fill” the $102K wick left on Binance during the October 10 crash.
Roman summed it up bluntly: “This looks like a bearish retest — volume is fading, and that wick still needs filling.”
3. CPI Report Arrives Amid U.S. Government Shutdown
A rare event is unfolding this week: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released Friday, even as the U.S. government remains shut down.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, this is the first time since 2018 that a CPI report lands on a Friday — and it comes just days before the Federal Reserve meets to decide on rates.
Because most inflation data is delayed by the shutdown, this CPI print carries extra weight. A weaker-than-expected reading could raise odds of a rate cut at the Oct. 29 Fed meeting, which markets already price at 0.25%.
However, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions — and comments from President Trump — could easily shift sentiment.
4. Leverage Creeps Back Into the Market
After the massive $19B liquidation wave earlier this month, leverage is quietly returning.
Data from CryptoQuant shows the Bitcoin leverage ratio rebounded from 0.148 to 0.166 last week, signaling traders are cautiously reopening positions.
Contributor Arab Chain noted this rise shows improving sentiment, though the market remains conservative.
“If Bitcoin can hold above $110K, confidence may slowly return,” he wrote.
Still, high-profile liquidations — like trader James Wynn’s $4.8M loss — remain a warning that overleveraging in this market is risky.
5. Bitcoin Dominance Faces “Make or Break” Moment
Bitcoin’s market dominance is becoming a key battleground again.
After October’s volatility punished altcoins, dominance steadied around 59.6%, down from a 63.5% peak earlier in the month.
Analyst Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin’s dominance has broken its long-term uptrend, turning 60% and 64% into new resistance levels.
He suggests the market could now enter a macro downtrend, which would eventually open the door for a new Altseason — but only if dominance drops below 57.6%.
For now, altcoins are still deep in recovery mode, with Binance’s top 50 futures basket trading below pre–2022 bear market levels.
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