US Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Soar to 65%, According to ETF Analyst

In a remarkable turn of events, the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining approval in the United States has skyrocketed to 65%, marking a substantial rise from a mere 1% just a few months ago.

ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg have expressed their optimism, citing a series of recent developments in the crypto market and the resubmission of ETF applications by major players like BlackRock.

Seyffart emphasized the significance of the Grayscale case dates, with the approval chances potentially hinging on Grayscale’s victory over the SEC in Federal court. A favorable outcome for Grayscale might trigger a domino effect, leading to the simultaneous approval of all spot Bitcoin ETF filings by the end of the fourth quarter later this year.

The changing landscape of the spot Bitcoin ETF analysis owes much to the BlackRock and Coinbase surveillance sharing agreement (SSA), according to Seyffart. Additionally, the Ripple case, while less impactful, is still relevant and could play a role in shaping the final decisions. The analysts, therefore, acknowledge the need to remain flexible in their assessment as new information emerges.

The frenzy of spot Bitcoin ETF filings commenced with BlackRock’s submission to the SEC on June 16. Subsequently, other major institutional players, such as WisdomTree, Invesco, Valkyrie, and more, joined the fray in the second quarter of 2023. Remarkably, this surge in filings has occurred despite the SEC’s previous rejection of all spot ETF applications. With 2023 seen as a critical year for the spot Bitcoin ETF, the attention from significant traditional financial institutions and analysts has intensified.

Balchunas is optimistic about the involvement of institutional giants like BlackRock, believing their interest may provide the best chance for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. As the crypto landscape evolves and new developments unfold, the analysts will continue to monitor and update their views accordingly.

The race for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval remains captivating and could significantly impact the future of cryptocurrency in the mainstream financial world. Investors and industry players are now closely watching for any further developments that could tip the scales towards a breakthrough approval.

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