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In a recent analysis, GSR Markets indicated that spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States could potentially multiply the price of SOL by nine. According to a report dated June 27, GSR views Solana as a key player among the top cryptocurrencies and speculates that it might be the next to gain approval for a U.S.-based spot cryptocurrency ETF.
On the very day this report emerged, VanEck took the industry by surprise by applying to launch a spot Solana ETF. GSR, maintaining a significant investment in SOL, projected that these ETFs could attract about 14% of the inflows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have garnered since their debut in January, relative to their market capitalizations.
In what GSR terms a “blue sky scenario,” this influx could propel Solana’s price from its current $149 to beyond $1,320, increasing its market cap to around $614 billion, assuming the current supply remains static.
GSR also outlined less optimistic “bear” and “baseline” scenarios, where Solana ETFs might capture 2% and 5% of the Bitcoin equivalent, respectively. These scenarios suggest potential price increases of 1.4 times and 3.4 times for SOL.
Moreover, these predictions could be understated if the ETFs can also distribute income from staking rewards, which was not a feature of the previously approved spot Ether ETFs.
GSR remains bullish about Solana’s prospects for an ETF, especially if U.S. regulatory conditions evolve to favor additional spot digital asset ETFs. However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and others contend that changes in the U.S. presidential administration and SEC leadership would be critical for a spot Solana ETF to advance.
The SEC, under Chair Gary Gensler, has classified SOL as a security in recent legal actions against platforms like Binance and Coinbase, which could complicate its approval path compared to the established spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
Adding to the North American context, VanEck’s application followed closely behind a pioneering move by 3iQ in Canada to file for a spot Solana ETF, marking a significant first in the region.
The Solana ecosystem has not only been lauded by large asset managers like Franklin Templeton, which manages over $1.5 trillion, but also has a growing global presence with over $1 billion in Solana-related exchange-traded products available worldwide. Franklin Templeton, however, has not confirmed plans to launch a Solana ETF.
