Market Experts from Bloomberg Predict a 75% Likelihood of Bitcoin ETF Approval in Current Year

In a significant turn of events, analysts at Bloomberg have revised their projections for the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) securing approval by the close of 2023. This adjustment comes in the wake of a recent legal victory achieved by Grayscale against the federal securities regulator.

Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, shared this updated perspective on August 30 via a post on X (Twitter). Balchunas indicated that the probability of approval had been elevated from its previous stance of 65% to a more positive 75%. This shift is attributed to the remarkable unity and clarity demonstrated by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in its recent ruling.

The resounding rejection of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) arguments by the judges has put the regulatory body in a challenging position. James Seyffart and Elliot Stein, both Bloomberg analysts, underlined this dynamic in an additional note on August 30. They highlighted that the SEC is now facing a significant hurdle in justifying any further denials, given the decisive nature of the recent court decision.

Seyffart further expressed his views on X, noting that the green light for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals is likely to become a “done deal” by the fourth quarter of 2024. His estimation now places the odds of approval at an impressive 95% by that time.

The imminent future holds several crucial decisions, as the next five days will witness the Securities and Exchange Commission rendering their “first deadline” verdicts on seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications. Notable applicants include Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.

Balchunas acknowledged the possibility of the SEC postponing the decisions on these forthcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications. However, he speculated that a more surprising outcome could transpire—one where the SEC unexpectedly concedes and grants approval to multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs in a single comprehensive decision. This unforeseen scenario could potentially expedite the entrance of these investment vehicles into the market.

For more news, find me on Twitter or subscribe to my YouTube channel.

What is your opinion on this issue? Leave me your comment below! I’m always interested in your opinion!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Recommended for you